Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 44.927637 53.023435 61.924771 72.406179 84.376896 97.587780 113.235101
2024-10-27 30.623769 40.706366 52.918664 68.664171 88.277189 111.742817 141.764377
2024-11-03 24.924977 36.259789 51.017578 71.343354 98.269530 132.339372 178.269463
2024-11-10 21.487606 33.707227 50.594148 75.127584 109.254962 154.363050 217.667895
2024-11-17 18.760141 31.484410 50.021705 78.234182 119.157729 175.281499 256.733976
2024-11-24 15.930946 28.536890 47.851168 78.559911 124.868636 190.560743 288.844273
2024-12-01 13.109479 25.068027 44.329473 76.291180 126.328889 199.634417 312.502669
2024-12-08 11.342717 23.016127 42.682886 76.578123 131.413500 214.022783 344.392730
2024-12-15 10.024594 21.509089 41.684851 77.691306 137.707661 230.426300 380.013535
2024-12-22 7.860995 18.047994 36.866601 71.867490 132.283784 228.384670 387.413575
2024-12-29 7.113342 17.198253 36.549926 73.670319 139.422383 246.270139 426.375089
2025-01-05 6.124649 15.674527 34.774400 72.650849 141.618521 256.257705 453.284107
2025-01-12 5.978253 16.069173 36.978276 79.625380 159.095660 293.703364 528.792245
2025-01-19 4.710594 13.702641 33.415203 75.440257 156.619424 298.174430 551.551463
2025-01-26 4.259295 13.156739 33.505304 78.331832 167.235105 325.563572 614.033468
2025-02-02 3.952849 12.902227 34.172231 82.429926 180.412011 358.195115 687.200968
2025-02-09 3.626858 12.518280 34.482000 85.793349 192.412356 389.429276 759.602772
2025-02-16 3.157987 11.618304 33.448958 86.145920 198.486367 410.287386 814.902958
2025-02-23 2.611777 10.335793 31.272468 83.689801 198.641523 420.188837 851.150215
2025-03-02 2.279871 9.618525 30.377729 84.000488 204.452424 440.942464 907.991431
2025-03-09 2.029439 9.095755 29.897593 85.205665 212.207707 465.803028 973.556859
2025-03-16 1.546018 7.592937 26.484663 78.898369 203.180378 457.483861 976.817347
2025-03-23 1.402980 7.299320 26.414205 80.851455 212.476674 485.809925 1050.670047